ACCC’s report may create ‘buying opportunity’ for Coles, Woolies: Macquarie analysts

Woolworths shares have rebounded as Macquarie analysts expect investors to snap up supermarket stocks following the release of the competition regulator’s report into the sector.

Macquarie analysts have upgraded Woolworths to outperform with an unchanged target price of $30.80 after reviewing its investment thesis for supermarkets ahead of the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission’s final report, which now sits with the Treasury.

Analysts at the investment bank said history suggested a potential buying opportunity, pointing to past consumer-facing regulatory inquires into banks, Qantas and childcare.

“Our analysis . . . suggests the market tends to ‘sell the rumour’ and ‘buy the fact’,” they told clients on Tuesday.

“100 days prior to the final reports being released, these groups on average delivered a one per cent fall in return.

“However, upon conclusion or release of the final report, there is a significant turnaround in performance.”

On average, these groups generated a 17 per cent return following the release of the reports. For the supermarkets, Macquarie said it saw this as an opportunity for a re-rating.

“This is particularly true for Woolworths, which is currently trading at close to a five-year low relative valuation (compared with Coles),” they said.

“We believe largely driven by negative sentiment as a result of press and ACCC focus.”

Woolworths shares closed up 1.4 per cent to $28.14, after sinking to $27.75 on Monday, its lowest so far this year. Coles shares were down 0.2 per cent to $18.55.

Macquarie left its outperform rating on Coles unchanged, with margins continuing to benefit from supply chain investments. It expects the 2026 financial year to be a “particularly strong year” for Coles.

The ACCC’s final report into its year-long inquiry into the supermarket sector was delivered to Treasury at the end of February. Its final publication date is unclear.

Coles boss Leah Weckert last week said while she doesn’t know what’s contained in the report, she was expecting new rules and recommendations around supplier relationships and pricing transparency.