AFAC releases summer bushfire outlook, warns of increased risk

A new map released by a national council of firefighters and emergency services shows vast portions of the country are at heightened risk of significant bushfires this summer.

Communities across the nation are being warned to remain vigilant over the next three months.

AFAC’s 2024 summer bushfire outlook, released on Thursday, suggests the central Northern Territory, portions of regional NSW, most of southern and western Victoria, the bushland around Adelaide and vast stretches of Western Australia are at increased risk of bushfires.

The term “increased risk” refers to the likelihood of an increased number of significant bushfires occurring in the outlook period compared to average.

“Northern Australia broadly received average to above average rainfall, but southern Australian received below average rainfall for

the cool season and into spring,” the outlook warns.

“As a result, soil moisture is below average across much of southern and eastern Australia.

“Mean temperatures for April to October were the third highest on record since 1910. For almost all jurisdictions, temperature means continue to be above average to very much above average.”

AFAC defines a significant bushfire as one with a size, complexity, duration or other impact that requires resources external to the region from which the fire originates.

“Increased bushfire risk depends on many factors including weather and climate, fuel amount and availability, recent fire and disturbance history, natural and human barriers, and how quickly and effectively firefighting resources are able to suppress fires in an area,” the outlook states.

Bushfires are a recurring threat to Australians and can quickly descend into widespread tragedy, such as the 2019-2020 Black Summer bushfires.

AFAC forecasts the central parts of NSW will experience above normal fire potential because of existing dryness, above average temperatures, higher than normal grass fuel loads and a mixed rainfall outlook.

For Victoria, AFAC warns “the current level of landscape dryness in these areas is strong enough that without significant rainfall, the flammability of fuels in forests, woodlands and heathlands will remain high with elevated potential for fires to start and spread”.

“Grasslands in these areas have superficial green-up, concealing underlying dryness, known as ‘green drought’,” AFAC said.

“Curing is likely to advance earlier than normal in these areas.”

South Australia, meanwhile, will enter the season with a “serious rainfall deficiency” in its southern areas, AFAC warns.

“There are no strong indications of above or below average rainfall overall, and if rainfall meets expected close-to-average levels in the coming months, it is unlikely to reduce the overall rainfall deficits,” the outlook states.

For WA, AFAC warns the Mallee and Esperance Plains bioregions and Balladonia are expected to face heightened fire risk.

“Elevated fuel availability is raising fire risk in the Nullarbor, Yalgoo and southern Carnarvon bioregions.

“Very dry areas, particularly in the Warren, Jarrah, and Swan Coastal Plain Bioregions, have an increased fire risk.

“A forecast warmer than average summer means it is crucial to remain vigilant and prepare your property.”

In the Northern Territory, AFAC expects fire risk to be “above normal in unburned areas from Kintore to Alice Springs and south into the Finke, top of the Simpson Desert, through to south of the Davenport Ranges.”

The council also warns that areas that are not marked out as containing increased risk, such as Queensland and the coastal strip of NSW, could still experience dangerous bushfires.

“Communities are encouraged to be vigilant and stay alert this summer even if in areas of Australia showing normal risk of fire as catastrophic fires can still occur during normal bushfire seasons,” the outlook states.