‘Expect more’: Second ‘once-in-a-century’ flood in six years worsened by climate change

Every eight-year-old in North Queensland has lived through two “once-in-a-century” floods.

The science shows the second “once-in-a-century” North Queensland flood since 2019 has been wetter, windier and hotter because of climate change.

Analysis shows the rain dump over North Queensland this past weekend brought 20 per cent more rain and 20 per cent more wind from an ocean 1.5C warmer than during similar storms last century.

Scientists from leading universities in the US, Switzerland, Sweden, Germany and the UK say the weather event was a “very exceptional meteorological event” that was almost certainly “strengthened by climate change”.

On Thursday, Anthony Albanese stood on a North Queensland roadside, next to a bridge that had again been washed away in floodwaters, and spoke to assembled media.

“We are seeing in Australia, unfortunately, more extreme weather events and they’re more intense,” the Prime Minister said.

“Doesn’t mean everything is due to climate change. We’ve always had extreme weather events in this country, but we are seeing them more often.

“Last year was, of course, the hottest year on record in global temperatures. We do need to continue to respond in the long term, but we need to look after people.”

On the ground in North Queensland, there is plenty of help still to be dished out.

Electricity in the town of Ingham was turned off on February 1, as the substation was subsumed by the Herbert River.

The town of 5000 people had already been cut off by flooded and damaged roadways.

Defence Force planes flew in groceries on Thursday and Friday.

On February 2, a 63-year-old woman died when an SES rescue boat capsized in Ingham. Two days later, an 82-year-old woman was found dead in a canefield outside Ingham.

About 100km south, Townsville dodged a bullet as the Ross River broke but did not reach its most fearsome levels. Nonetheless, six low-lying suburbs had to evacuate before the water inevitably reached homes. Thousands more outside the low-lying “black zone” were inundated. People are now throwing out soiled furniture and belongings.

The whole sorry situation is deja vu from Townsville’s 2019 floods when three people died and at least 10 were immediately infected by bacteria, stirred up by contaminated floodwaters.

Australian climate advocacy group Solutions for Climate director Barry Traill said people should take their experiences of climate change to the polling booths.

“It will definitely be on the mind of voters in Townsville who have been forced to leave

everything behind for the second time in six years,” Dr Traill told NewsWire. “As it will be for Victorians fighting heatwaves and bushfires this week.”

Dr Traill is an ecologist, conservationist and has seen the most brutal effects of climate change.

“I’m a volunteer firefighter in Queensland,” Dr Traill said.

“In the decade since I joined, I’ve seen the reality of this increasing year by year. In our summer wet seasons, there are more extreme floods.

“In our spring dry seasons, there are more extreme dry spells and fires. This increase in weather disasters has been long predicted by climate scientists and is now becoming an increasing reality for all Australians.”

The federal Liberal and National parties are offering voters a nuclear plan that would pump out billions of tonnes of pollution before the reactors could be built, Dr Traill said.

Labor is progressing the shift to clean renewable power and has the country on track to reduce climate pollution 42 per cent by 2030.

“Experts have pointed to this pathway as necessary to keep climate disasters to a minimum,” Dr Traill said.

“These floods are another huge wake-up call for Australia – we are all now bearing the costs. We need to act on climate,” Dr Traill said.

“We need to rapidly get out of polluting coal and gas that is heating the world.”

The international weather analysis referenced above was done by the Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace’s Climate Modeling Centre.

The global network of scientists looks at extreme weather events, comparing similar events since 2001 with incidents between 1979 and 2001.

Comparing the two periods during this latest downpour, temperatures in the region were 1C to 1.2C warmer than what they were in the past. This sparked up to 17mm/day more rain (up 20 per cent) over the coastal areas and the mountains of Queensland.

The patchwork nature of substantial rain events makes comparison difficult. But Climate Resilience managing director James Stuart said the rainfall was similar to the “once-in-a-century” 2019 floods.

“In broad terms, the rainfall is comparable,” he said.

In Townsville in 2019, repeated rounds of heavy rain fell in the Ross River Dam catchment, with 1700mm at some locations.

This time, the heaviest rain was further north around Rollingstone, Cardwell, and Ingham and of a similar magnitude.

This time, 104mm was recorded in one hour at Paluma Dam. At Paluma, 1311mm was observed over three days and 1061mm in two days.

The historical records were getting less and less useful for predicting the next disaster, Mr Stuart said.

“What’s probably more relevant for Australians today are the record-high sea surface temperatures, which have the potential to fuel increased rainfall. So we should expect more of these events around Australia if ocean warming continues, and there is no sign of it abating.”

Physicists and marine biologists tell NewsWire these most recent floods washed highly damaging sediment onto the Great Barrier Reef.

“For the second time in six years, Townsville has been hit by a ‘once-in-a-century’ flood, sending a surge of sediment, nutrients and pollutants toward the Great Barrier Reef,” marine biologist Jodie Rummer said.

“These floodwaters smother corals, block sunlight and disrupt marine ecosystems – impacts made worse by rising ocean temperatures.”

Teams of marine biologists are already on and under the water checking on the Reef’s immediate health.

“After the 2019 floods, record-breaking nitrogen and sediment loads devastated water quality,” Dr Rummer said.

“Now, history is repeating itself, compounding the crisis.

“These extreme events are becoming more frequent as climate change intensifies. If we want to secure the future of the Reef, we need to reduce emissions, protect water quality and build resilience in these ecosystems before it’s too late.”

One silver lining is the immense rain clouds actually shield the Reef from sunlight.

“ … bringing respite from the bleaching-level heat stress that has accumulated,” physicist Scott Heron said.

The James Cook University professor said the rainfall came from an “atmospheric river”, and despite a small reprieve from coral bleaching conditions, the risk was far from over.

“We’ll be watching carefully how the sea temperature in February and March develops after this event is finished,” Professor Heron said.

“The Reef is still at risk for further coral bleaching this year, as climate change has brought the baseline temperatures closer to the threshold for bleaching.”

On that roadside on Thursday, alongside the Labor Prime Minister and Queensland’s LNP Premier, Bob Katter joined the chorus of calls for bigger and stronger roads and bridges so the same infrastructure does not need to be rebuilt again and again. The veteran politician also wants diggers and bulldozers to shape the landscape.

“The Premier and Prime Minister are dead right, we keep doing this all the time. Please, can we divert the upper Herbert (river). If we divert the upper Herbert, this doesn’t happen,” Mr Katter said.

“Half a million people are trapped on this coastal plain. If a cyclone comes in or anything, we need a tunnel to get off the coastal plain.

“We need the diversion of the upper Herbert, or in my lifetime – which is pretty short now – there’s going to be a great loss of life.”